Around two-thirds of this year’s finalists are not expecting to find graduate-level employment when they finish their degrees, according to a survey released today by High Fliers Research.

The survey, which drew on interviews with more than 16,000 final-year students at 30 universities around the country, found that 21% of them felt confident of finding a full-time graduate position; while 15% were less confident but expected to find a permanent position eventually.

The figures show a decline in graduate job seekers since 1998, when the proportion expecting to go into permanent employment was 49%.

There were several reasons for the relatively low proportion of finalists hoping to enter the graduate job market, not all of them negative: for one, around a quarter of the survey was hoping to go on to a postgraduate course.

And of the remaining two-fifths, while some were resigned to obtaining non-graduate level employment, others were looking to take a gap year - either to pursue outside projects, or to acquire relevant skills with a view to entering the job market later.

63% of the respondents agreed with the statement, “there are some graduate jobs, but not enough for everyone leaving university this summer”. Meanwhile 17% said there were plenty of jobs available.

The survey echoed the findings of a poll we carried out in March 2005 among Milkround subscribers. 29% of our respondents felt that the outlook for graduate jobs was very good – but 49% said that they had not personally seen evidence of a pickup in the job market. The remaining 22% said that they were not looking for the kind of blue-chip graduate-level positions that were reported to be on the rise.

The figures come as a counterpoint to the results of the Association of Graduate Recruiters survey, of its roughly 300 large graduate employer members, which it released in February 2005. The AGR survey found that its members were planning to increase recruitment by 14.5% this year.

With decreasing demand and increasing supply of jobs, one might expect salaries to decrease: however salary expectations among the finalists were relatively upbeat, at around £19,800 for their first graduate job, a 4% increase on last year. This compares to an average starting salary offered by AGR members this year, of £22,000.

While the High Fliers survey does reveal some pessimism among finalists about the job market, it also showed that graduates are increasingly choosing to look at options outside graduate training schemes, either in further study, career breaks or less structured career roles.